基于傅里叶级数的中国沿海地区Tm模型精化研究     

刘立龙  万庆同  周威  黄良珂  黎峻宇 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(11):1137-1141

本文采用中国沿海地区13个探空站2010~2014年实测地表温度T_s与平均温度T_m数据，利用傅里叶级数分析法精化中国沿海地区T_m模型，并将2015年探空站实测T_m数据与精化模型进行对比检验。结果表明，精化模型在T_m探测方面具有更高的计算精度，其计算大气可降水量的误差概率分布趋近于正态分布，具有较强的稳定性。  相似文献   

渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析     

罗辰奕  聂红涛  张海彦 《海洋学报》2019,41(8):85-96

随着海洋生态系统模型的发展，生态变量增多，众多生物过程参数量值的确定成为制约生态环境模拟的瓶颈问题，生态系统结构区域性要求模型中的生态参数具有区域差异。为探究不同海区的关键参数及参数敏感度的空间差异，本研究在渤、黄海建立了ROMS-CoSiNE物理–生物耦合的高分辨率生态系统模型，并对13种生态参数的敏感度空间分布进行分析。结果表明:南黄海中部与渤海及近岸海域的敏感度差异较大。渤海敏感度最大的参数为决定光合速率的浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率，其次为浮游动物捕食半饱和常数和浮游动物最大捕食率。而南黄海中部敏感度最大的参数为浮游动物最大捕食率，其次为浮游植物死亡率和浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率。结合敏感度分布及浮游植物生物量收支得出，渤海水体透明度较南黄海偏低、浮游植物生长光限制较强，是引起浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率敏感度在渤海高于黄海的主要原因。浮游动物最大捕食率及浮游植物死亡率的敏感度空间差异，受渤、黄海浮游植物生物量差异的影响，与生态系统中的高度非线性特征有关。  相似文献   

Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

Quantifying suitable dynamic water levels in marsh wetlands based on hydrodynamic modelling     

Peng Hu  Zefan Yang  Qiande Zhu  Weize Wang  Qin Yang 《水文研究》2021,35(2):e14054

The water level of marsh wetlands is a dominant force controlling the wetland ecosystem function, especially for aquatic habitat. For different species, water level requirements vary in time and space, and therefore ensuring suitable water levels in different periods is crucial for the maintenance of biodiversity in marsh wetlands. Based on hydrodynamic modelling and habitat suitability assessment, we determined suitable dynamic water levels considering aquatic habitat service at different periods in marsh wetlands. The two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the temporal and spatial variation of water level. The habitat suitability for target species at various water levels was evaluated to obtain the fitting curves between Weighted Usable Area (WUA) and water levels. And then suitable water levels throughout the year were proposed according to the fitting curves. Using the Zhalong Wetland (located in northeastern China) as a case study, we confirmed that the proposed MIKE 21 model can successfully be used to simulate the water level process in the wetland. Suitable water levels were identified as being from 143.9–144.2 m for April to May, 144.1–144.3 m for June to September, and 144.3–144.4 m for October to November (before the freezing season). Furthermore, proposed water diversion schemes have been identified which can effectively sustain the proposed dynamic water levels. This study is expected to provide appropriate guidance for the determination of environmental flows and water management strategies in marsh wetlands.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the temporal variations of groundwater storage and its interactions with climatic variables using GRACE data and hydrological models: A study from Turkey     

Behnam Khorrami  Orhan Gunduz 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14076

Monitoring of the fluctuations of groundwater storage is particularly important in arid and semi-arid regions where water scarcity brings about various challenges. Remote sensing data and techniques play a preponderant role in developing solutions to environmental problems. The launch of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites has eased the remote monitoring and evaluation of groundwater resources with an unprecedented precision over large scales. Within the scope of the current study, the latest release (RL06) of GRACE mass concentrations (Mascons) from Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) dataset as well as Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of Noah and Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) were used to provide Groundwater Storage Anomalies (GWSA) over Turkey. The temporal interactions of the estimated GWSA with the climatic variables of precipitation and temperature (derived from the reanalysis datasets of CHELSA [Climatologies at High resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas] and FLDAS [the Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System], respectively) were investigated statistically. The results suggest that there is a descending trend (from 2003 to 2016) for Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) and GWSA over Turkey with a total loss of 11 and 6 cm of water, respectively. The statistical analysis results also indicate that the monthly variations of GWSA over Turkey are highly correlated with precipitation and temperature at 2-month lag. The analysis of the climatology (long-term) values of monthly GWSA, precipitation and temperature also revealed high agreement between the variables.  相似文献   

Hydrological management strategies for the control of algal blooms in regulated lowland rivers     

Jian Li  Wei Yin  Haiyan Jia  Xiaokang Xin 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14171

Reservoirs of lowland floodplain rivers with eutrophic backgrounds cause variations in the hydrological and hydraulic conditions of estuaries and low-dam reservoir areas, which can promote planktonic algae to proliferate and algal bloom outbreaks. Understanding the ecological effects of variations in hydrological and hydraulic processes in lowland rivers is important for algal bloom control. In this study, the middle and lower reaches of the Han River, China, a typical regulated lowland river with a eutrophic background, are selected. Based on the effect of hydrological and hydraulic variability on algal blooms, a hydrological management strategy for river algal bloom control is proposed. The results showed that (a) differences in river morphology and background nutrient levels cause significant differences in the critical threshold flow velocities for algal bloom outbreaks between natural river and low-dam reservoir sections; there is no uniform threshold flow velocity for algal bloom control. (b) There are significant differences in the river hydrological/hydraulic conditions between years with and without algal blooms. The average river flow, water level and velocity in years with algal blooms are significantly lower than those in years without algal blooms. (c) For different river sections where algal blooms occur and to meet the threshold flow velocities, the joint operation of cascade reservoirs and diversion projects is an effective method to prevent and control algal blooms in regulated lowland rivers. This study is expected to deepen our understanding of the ecological significance of special hydrological processes and guide algal bloom management in regulated lowland rivers.  相似文献   

Snowmelt characteristics in a pristine mountain catchment of the Jalovecký Creek,Slovakia, over the last three decades     

Ladislav Holko  Michal Danko  Patrik Sleziak 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14128

The Jalovecký Creek catchment, Slovakia (area 22.2 km², mean elevation 1500 m a.s.l.), is likely the last big valley complex in the Carpathian Mountains, in which the hydrological cycle is still governed by natural processes. Hydrological research is conducted there since the end of the 1980s. The overall mission of the research is to increase the knowledge about the hydrological cycle in the highest part of the Carpathians. The research agenda, briefly introduced in the first part of this article, is focused on water balance, snow accumulation and melt and runoff formation. Recent analysis of precipitation, discharge, snow cover and isotopic data from period 1989–2018 indicates that hydrological cycle has become more dynamic since 2014. Although several indicators suggest that it could be related to the cold part of the year, direct links with snow storage and the contribution of snowmelt water to catchment runoff were not confirmed. The second part of the article is therefore focused on an analysis of daily cycles in streamflow in March to June 1988–2018 to obtain a deeper insight into the snowmelt process. We describe characteristics of the cycles and examine their variability over the study period. The results indicate that less snow at the lowest elevations (800–1150 m a.s.l.) since 2009 could have influenced the cessation of the cycles in June since 2010. The possible role of the decreased amount of snow at the lowest elevations in changes in runoff characteristics is also suggested by an increase in time lags between maximum discharges during the events and maximum air temperatures preceding discharge maxima measured near the catchment outlet (at 750 m a.s.l.) in spring 2018 compared to springs with a similar number of streamflow cycles in the years 1988, 2000 and 2009. Wavelet analysis did not indicate changes in global power spectra in hourly discharge and air temperature data.  相似文献   

Development of the cyclic p–y curve for a single pile in sandy soil     

Sung-Ha Baek  Joonyoung Kim  Seung-Hwan Lee 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2018,36(3):351-359

Pile foundations that support transmission towers or offshore structures are dominantly subjected to cyclic lateral load induced by wind and waves. For a successful design, it is crucial to investigate the effect of cyclic lateral loads on the pile behavior that is loaded laterally. Although the p–y curve method is generally utilized to design the cyclic laterally loaded pile foundations, the effect of cyclic lateral loads on the pile has not been properly implemented with the p–y curve. This reflects a lack of consideration of the overall stiffness change in soil–pile interaction. To address this, a series of model pile tests were conducted in this study on a preinstalled aluminum flexible pile under various sandy soil conditions. The test results were used to investigate the effect of cyclic lateral loads on the p–y behavior. The cyclic p–y curve, which properly takes into account this effect, was developed as a hyperbolic function. Pseudo-static analysis was also conducted with the proposed cyclic p–y curve, which showed that it was able to properly simulate cyclic laterally loaded pile behavior in sandy soil.  相似文献   

近断层速度脉冲与震源机制的关系浅析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

罗全波  陈学良  高孟潭  李宗超  李铁飞  张振 《震灾防御技术》2018,13(3):646-661

本文初步分析了近断层速度脉冲的成因和特点，主要包括方向性效应与滑冲效应，并通过中国台湾集集地震的脉冲记录，分析了断层破裂方向和位移大小等震源参数对脉冲强度的影响。此外，基于有限移动源理论，说明了断层辐射与速度脉冲分布的关系，并探讨了利用运动学震源模型研究近断层地震动对速度脉冲影响的技术路线；评述了7种典型的等效速度脉冲模型，建议进一步研究等效速度脉冲函数与震源机制之间的关系。最后，简述了不同类型的断层引起速度脉冲的差异，并推测了产生脉冲型地震动的下限条件，同时展望该研究在地震预警方面的可能性。  相似文献   

基于多元线性回归方法的砌体结构加固费用估算模型研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郑山锁  丁明松  郑捷  侯丕吉 《地震工程学报》2018,40(1):6-13

为建立适用于砌体结构的加固费用快速估算模型,对中国陕西、山西、四川等地砌体结构建筑物的历史加固费用及相关建筑参数进行统计,建立涵盖35栋砌体结构建筑物加固费用估算模型的回归与验证数据库,同时对影响加固费用的各建筑参数作显著性分析,并基于后向消去的多元线性回归方法,利用SPSS统计分析软件对已采集的加固数据进行回归,得到4个费用估算模型;按照相应评价准则分别对各模型进行评价,提出一套最优的砌体结构加固费用快速估算模型,并对该回归模型进行验证分析。回归得到的费用估算模型满足精度要求,具有一定的工程应用价值。  相似文献